PM Modi's Third Term: Challenges and Foreign Policy Adjustments
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for a third term in office — albeit with a significantly reduced majority — the dynamics of his coalition government and a shifting domestic landscape may force him to recalibrate his approach to relations with Pakistan, even though he would like to maintain a sense of continuity in his government’s external policies.
Key Points:
- Campaign Stance on Pakistan: The BJP’s campaign emphasized a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, referencing the '2016 surgical strike' and '2019 airstrikes' to highlight its firm position on Pakistan.
- Shifting Election Narrative: Initially muted, Pakistan became a focal point as the campaign progressed, with PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah using it to bolster their national security agenda.
- Foreign Policy Legacy: Modi's past tenures are marked by assertiveness, a pro-US shift, and tough stances on Pakistan and China. Future policies are likely to maintain this course, with stronger ties with Iran, Russia, and Gulf states.
- Potential Diplomatic Restorations: Former high commissioner Abdul Basit suggests Modi may restore full diplomatic relations with Pakistan and attend the 19th Saarc summit.
- China as a Central Focus: China will remain a significant foreign policy challenge, with India focusing on partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
- Internal Dynamics and Communal Issues: Modi's coalition may struggle with a hardline stance on Pakistan due to diverse ally views. Domestically, a diminished grip on power may prompt more inclusive engagement with minorities.
- Kashmir Elections Impact: The electoral outcome in India-held Kashmir, especially Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rashid's victory, indicates local dissatisfaction and could affect India-Pakistan dynamics.
Given the historical context where tensions with Pakistan have often unified domestic support during unstable political periods, the prospect of a military crisis in the region cannot be dismissed lightly. Mr Basit advises Islamabad to tread with utmost caution to avoid further weakening its Kashmir policy.
